OpenAI revenue miss triggers tech selloff as SpaceX spectrum deal rattles telecoms

U.S. stock futures climbed late Thursday after an underwhelming revenue report from OpenAI triggered a selloff in technology and chip stocks during the prior trading session. The rebound in futures followed a day when benchmark indexes closed mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite shedding 345 points to close 1.25% lower, while the S&P 500 fell 0.47% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.10%.

The market reaction centered on OpenAI's reported annualized revenue of approximately $50 billion as of the end of September, a figure that fell short of the $70 billion widely expected by markets. The discrepancy in expectations stemmed from differing accounting methods; the $70 billion figure, first reported by Axios, included sales through cloud partners like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud to allow for a direct comparison with Anthropic, whereas OpenAI does not count such partner revenue in its own figures.

Technology and semiconductor stocks led the decline on Thursday. Shares of Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) slid nearly 3% at the close, while Oracle Corp. (ORCL), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) fell by approximately 5%, 4%, and 4%, respectively. Nicholas Mugalli, an institutional TMT research analyst, noted in a post on X that the market was repricing based on rumors rather than confirmed data. He emphasized that OpenAI's growth from a $20 billion run rate at the end of the previous year represents roughly 2.5x growth in nine months, arguing that expectations had simply outpaced the company's scaling.

Mugalli further contended that the broader AI investment thesis relies on spending by hyperscalers such as Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META), rather than solely on OpenAI's revenue. He stated that a single private company's revenue mark does not cancel out datacenter order books, suggesting that patient investors could benefit from rumor-driven selloffs.

In the telecommunications sector, SpaceX (SPCX) announced an agreement to buy up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz band. This move positions Starlink Mobile to compete as a major U.S. mobile carrier, sending shockwaves through traditional telecom stocks. Shares of AT&T Inc. (T), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Verizon Inc. (VZ), and Comcast (CMCSA) sank following the announcement.

Overnight trading reflected these sector-specific shifts. Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) shares climbed more than 2% after Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a $304 price target. Conversely, AT&T and Verizon shares plummeted more than 6% overnight on fears of increased competition from SpaceX's new mobile ambitions.

Investors are now turning their attention to the third-quarter earnings season, which begins next week with results from major U.S. banks. Meanwhile, U.S. long-dated Treasury yields slid lower from multi-decade highs, with the 10-year yield at 5.234% and the 30-year yield at 5.612%. Oil prices edged lower but remained above $100 a barrel, with Brent crude futures expiring in December trading at $103.45 and WTI crude futures expiring in November at $90.81.